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Avian & Pandemic Flu
How might Avian Flu lead to a Pandemic?
There are two main concerns:
1. The more birds that are affected by the current H5N1 outbreak, the more H5N1 virus there will be. Mutations are chance events so the probability of a direct mutation into a strain that might spread easily between humans must inevitably increase.
2. The longer the present situation continues, the greater the chances of a person becoming infected simultaneously with avian and human strains of flu viruses. The fear is that such combined infections could create a “melting pot” effect, resulting in an exchange of genes between the two viruses creating a new strain that could then spread easily between humans.
With no human immunity to such new strains, conditions would be right for a serious global epidemic (pandemic). Developing and producing a vaccine against such a new strain would take time; certainly a minimum of 6 months. Historically, major flu pandemics have claimed millions of lives and some experts believe that a pandemic on such a scale is not inconceivable.
There is also a third possibility: although a mutation from H5N1 seems by far the most likely source of a pandemic flu virus, experts remain concerned that a pandemic virus might yet emerge from an entirely different source, making careful surveillance of flu viruses a global imperative.
So what is a Pandemic, and how serious might it be?
A pandemic is a global outbreak or epidemic. In the case of flu viruses, pandemics typically appear about three times in every century when a strain emerges against which humans have no immunity.
In recent times unfortunately we have become used to thinking of flu as being a minor illness. Much more serious infections are possible however – as with human cases of H5N1 that have recently occurred and with the 1918-19 pandemic strain.
The biggest human pandemic in the 20th Century occurred in 1918-19 resulting in approximately 50 million deaths worldwide.
Are we well-prepared for a flu pandemic?
As of May 2006, only one third of the world’s countries had published pandemic preparedness plans. Total national stockpiles of antiviral drugs amounted to no more than 200 million courses (enough for only 200 million people out of a global total of 6 billion) and global flu vaccine production capacity was believed to be 300 million doses with a 4-6 month lead time.
On 29th June 2006, the UK Department of Health announced serious production difficulties with the 2006 seasonal flu vaccine, demonstrating the inherent unreliability of the current biological systems on which we rely for vaccine production.
So the outlook is not good at present. Most of the world - including the places that are most likely to be the source of a pandemic flu strain appearing for the first time - will have to rely on simple public health measures, rather than drugs or vaccines. There will be no prospect of containing the virus and there will be no health infrastructure for treatment of people who are severely affected.
More information, Consultancy and Advice
Use our links page to find the key global sites concerned with Pandemic Flu.
The Fleet Street Clinic offers a consultancy service to organisations involved in business continuity planning and can provide practical help with supplies of all types.
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Call our UK Booking Hotline now! Book your Corporate Flu Vaccination programme right away: 020 7353 5678
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