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Seasonal flu
What is “seasonal flu”?
Seasonal flu is the ‘normal’ flu that occurs every winter in both the Northern and Southern Hemispheres. In the Northern Hemisphere, peak transmission runs from December to April.
(In tropical countries, where there are no seasons, flu is present year-round – a hazard that visitors are not always aware of.)
Seasonal flu typically affects between 10 to 15 per cent of the population each winter.
Outbreaks and epidemics
Superimposed on this annual pattern, larger outbreaks (epidemics) of seasonal flu can also occur – typically every 3-10 years. We have been fortunate not to have experienced an epidemic in recent years, but experts believe that another epidemic of seasonal flu is overdue and that the risk of a further epidemic rises significantly as each winter passes. (This is not the same as pandemic flu.)
It is impossible to predict how severe an epidemic of seasonal flu might be. Its severity depends on three factors: declining immunity in the population, how much the virus “mutates” in any given year, and the ability of a new virus strain to cause severe infection.
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